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如何化解美国政府高债务杠杆风险——资产配置海外双周报2025年第3期(总第52期)
Bei Ke Cai Jing·2025-09-14 22:59

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government debt leverage ratio has doubled over the past 20 years and is at a historical high, raising concerns about sustainability and economic stability [2][17][89]. Group 1: U.S. Government Debt Leverage Ratio - The U.S. government debt leverage ratio has increased from 42% to 106.5% over the past 20 years, marking a 150% rise [10][17]. - As of Q1 2023, the government debt leverage ratio stands at 106.5%, down from a peak of 112% in Q2 2020 [10][11]. - The federal debt held by the public, after excluding holdings by the Federal Reserve and other federal agencies, shows a leverage ratio of 68% as of Q1 2023, indicating a significant burden of interest payments [13][17]. Group 2: Historical Context and Trends - The U.S. government debt leverage ratio has exhibited a "W" shape over the past 80 years, with notable declines post-World War II and during the 1990s, followed by increases during economic crises [18][21]. - Historical data indicates that the government debt leverage ratio decreased significantly during periods of budget surpluses and low interest rates, particularly from 1947 to 1974 and from 1993 to 2001 [23][26][71]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Debt Leverage - The marginal changes in government debt leverage are influenced by fiscal spending, interest payments, and nominal economic growth, with fiscal balance being a critical factor [21][34]. - The relationship between government debt leverage and private sector leverage is crucial; increases in private sector debt can facilitate government debt reduction [36][71]. Group 4: Role of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's role in creating a stable low-inflation environment has been pivotal in supporting long-term economic growth and reducing government debt leverage [4][88]. - Historical experiences suggest that simply maintaining low interest rates is insufficient; effective monetary policy must also support economic growth to reduce debt leverage [72][88]. Group 5: Current Economic Policy Implications - Current fiscal imbalances, characterized by high non-interest spending and social security expenditures, pose challenges to reducing the government debt leverage ratio [89][92]. - The economic policies under the Trump administration, including tax cuts and tariffs, reflect a complex interplay between fiscal measures and their impact on government debt sustainability [101][102].