缺乏明确方向性驱动 镍价维持震荡格局

Group 1 - Domestic nickel prices opened significantly lower on April 7, reaching a new low since April 2021, with prices nearing 115,000 yuan/ton [1] - As market pessimism gradually dissipates, domestic nickel prices have undergone a phase of valuation recovery, stabilizing around 120,000 yuan/ton [1] - Despite a general increase in industrial product prices due to "anti-involution" policies, nickel and downstream stainless steel prices remain in a weak and fluctuating state compared to other industrial products [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is becoming more relaxed, with approved mining quotas for 2025 increasing by over 22% to 36.4 million wet tons [2] - The actual nickel ore supply in Indonesia is expected to reach approximately 30 million wet tons in 2025, while total annual demand is around 26 million wet tons, indicating a shift from tight to relaxed supply conditions [2] - Domestic pure nickel production remains high, with August output at 35,200 tons and a cumulative total of 264,000 tons from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.84% [2] Group 3 - Global nickel inventories continue to rise, reaching 259,600 tons as of September 5, an increase of over 50,000 tons since the beginning of the year, marking a five-year high for this period [3] - Domestic nickel inventories, while down from their peak earlier in the year, remain elevated at 39,900 tons as of September 5, also at a historical high for this time [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has increased the number of deliverable pure nickel brands, significantly reducing the risk of insufficient delivery of nickel futures [3] Group 4 - Current spot prices for pure nickel have fallen below the cost line for external raw materials, including nickel sulfate and high-grade nickel [4] - The overall nickel price faces significant upward pressure due to the shift in Indonesian nickel ore supply and high global inventories, although there is some cost support at the lower end due to current pricing below production costs [4] - The main uncertainties lie in overseas nickel industry policy changes, particularly regarding the Philippines, which supplies over 90% of China's nickel ore imports, and Indonesia's high-grade nickel and intermediate products [4]