财信证券宏观策略周报（9.15-9.19）：慢牛基础仍然存在，关注自主可控方向

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to face multiple domestic and international events next week, which may influence direction selection. Key events include the release of August high-frequency economic data, US-China talks in Spain, and the Federal Reserve's September meeting. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a potential for continued oscillation in the market index [1][4]. Economic Data and Trends - August saw a decrease in new RMB deposits by 600 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions' deposits increased by 550 billion yuan. The trend of residents' savings entering the market continues, albeit at a slower pace compared to July [2]. - The demand for AI computing power remains robust, with Oracle reporting an unfulfilled revenue obligation of $455 billion, a year-on-year increase of 359% [2][9]. - The US job market shows signs of cooling, with a significant downward revision of 910,000 in the preliminary benchmark for non-farm employment for 2025, indicating a weaker employment landscape [2][10]. Market Strategy and Investment Opportunities - The current market strategy suggests focusing on high-growth sectors for low-entry opportunities, including: 1. Self-sufficiency sectors such as information technology and chips [11]. 2. Energy storage and new energy sectors, which may become the next market growth drivers [11]. 3. Service consumption sectors, with a gradual layout in tourism, dining, and entertainment as the National Day holiday approaches [11]. 4. Sectors benefiting from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals [11][12]. Market Valuation - As of September 14, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the entire A-share market is 22.25, at the 91.96 percentile historically, indicating a low point in A-share performance. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.81, at the 54.71 percentile historically, suggesting strong valuation appeal [5]. - In August, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 25,693 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, but the structure still requires improvement, particularly in long-term credit demand from households and enterprises [5]. Price Index Trends - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to falling food prices, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, narrowing from previous months [6]. - Export growth slowed in August, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, reflecting uncertainties in future export trends due to high base effects and new tax regulations [7][8]. Summary of Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed positive performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.65%. However, trading volume decreased by 10.62% compared to the previous week, indicating a cautious market sentiment [13].