中信证券:储能经济盈利拐点显现 容量倍增计划为装机提供持续保障
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-15 01:13

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is gaining attention due to overseas demand recovery, price rebound, and the implementation of the new energy storage "doubling plan" which ensures continuous installation support [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new energy storage "doubling plan" aims for over 100 million kilowatts of new installed capacity nationwide within three years, reaching over 180 million kilowatts by the end of 2027, driving direct project investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [2] - The expected installed capacity growth of 2.44 times compared to the cumulative installed capacity of 73.76 million kilowatts in 2024 indicates a robust domestic market demand in the next five years [2] - Overseas demand is improving, with the impact of tariffs diminishing and the OBBBA Act driving increased installation expectations in the U.S. for 2026 [2] Group 2: Economic Transition - The storage sector is transitioning from a cost item to a profit item as the economic viability of storage becomes evident [2][3] - The cancellation of mandatory storage policies has created substantial revenue opportunities for storage, with the 136 document expected to mark a profitability turning point for large-scale storage [3] Group 3: Long-term Mechanisms - The capacity market is seen as a sustainable mechanism for storage installation, addressing issues like subsidy fixation and resource misallocation [3][4] - The establishment of a national unified capacity market framework is anticipated, with pilot programs expected in provinces like Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangdong [4]