降息易，定调难! 美联储内部现严重分歧，市场紧盯周三决议指引

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is preparing to restart interest rate cuts for the first time in nine months to address a slowing labor market and persistent inflation above the 2% target, but there is significant internal disagreement on the pace and extent of these cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent weak economic data has raised concerns about a more severe recession in the labor market, potentially dragging down consumer spending and overall economic growth [1]. - The unemployment claims have risen to a nearly four-year high, and employment growth data for 2024-2025 has been revised down by 910,000, reinforcing market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this week [3]. - The current inflation rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, with tariff policies posing risks of further price increases [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for no rate cuts while others call for more significant reductions; this week’s decision may see 3 to 4 dissenting votes, potentially the highest since 1990 [1][6]. - Some officials, like former Philadelphia Fed President Pat Harker, express uncertainty about the clarity of the path forward for rate cuts, indicating a complex balancing act between employment and inflation [1][6]. - The potential appointment of Stephen Milan, a Trump ally, to the Fed Board could influence future policy directions, especially if there are further vacancies due to political maneuvers [2][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Barclays has raised its rate cut forecast following the latest employment report, predicting three additional 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and two more in March and June 2026 [4]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming Fed rate decision and Powell's press conference for insights into economic strategies, with some economists becoming more optimistic about economic growth prospects if tariff policies stabilize [5].