油电之争，快结局了？

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has surpassed 60%, indicating a significant shift in the automotive market towards electrification and away from traditional fuel vehicles [1][4]. Industry Trends - The overall trend of NEV penetration is upward, despite some fluctuations, with traditional fuel vehicles showing resilience earlier in the year, maintaining a penetration rate around 50% [5][6]. - In the second half of the year, traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a decline, attributed to the improved competitiveness of NEVs and the exposure of traditional vehicles' weaknesses [6][10]. - In August, traditional fuel vehicle promotions reached 22.9%, while NEV promotions were only 10.7%, highlighting the aggressive discounting strategies of traditional vehicles [8]. Market Dynamics - Traditional fuel vehicles are caught in a "vicious cycle," needing to sacrifice profits to maintain market share, which could lead to operational challenges for manufacturers and dealers [8][10]. - Some traditional dealerships are shifting towards NEVs, and certain joint venture brands are accelerating their electrification efforts [8][10]. Future Projections - The upcoming months, particularly during the "golden September and silver October," are expected to see a surge in NEV demand as consumers rush to take advantage of current tax exemptions before they decrease [11][13]. - While a temporary sales drop for NEVs may occur after the tax incentives are reduced, the long-term acceptance of NEVs among consumers is expected to grow significantly [13][15]. - The supply of NEVs is increasing, with a wider variety of options available compared to traditional fuel vehicles, and decreasing raw material costs for batteries may lead to more competitive pricing [15][16]. Conclusion - The competition between fuel and electric vehicles is nearing its conclusion, with projections suggesting that traditional fuel vehicles may shrink to around 10% market share, while NEVs could dominate with 90% [16].