降息或延续美国牛市?BMO：美股涨势可续但涨幅料低于历史均值

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's shift towards interest rate cuts could extend the U.S. bull market, but future stock returns may be weaker than historical averages [1] - BMO Capital Markets' analysis shows that since 1982, in 8 out of 10 interest rate cut cycles, the S&P 500 index achieved positive returns, with an average increase of approximately 10.4% in the following year [1] - The performance of the stock market is contingent on whether interest rate cuts can prolong economic expansion and maintain corporate profit growth; if monetary easing fails to prevent economic recession, stock markets may suffer losses [1] Group 2 - BMO's analysis indicates that most sectors have risen in the year following the first interest rate cut since 1982, with communication services, consumer discretionary, industrials, and information technology typically performing well [2] - The energy sector has historically lagged, but sectors like energy, healthcare, materials, and utilities, which have underperformed prior to the current rate cut, may rebound stronger than average in the coming year [2] - BMO maintains a target price of 6700 for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, corresponding to an earnings per share of $275 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4 [2]