存款搬家了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" refers to individuals transferring their savings into financial investments, such as stock investments or asset management products, leading to a shift from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial deposits [1] Group 1: Deposit Migration Dynamics - The most direct manifestation of deposit migration is the conversion of personal retail deposits into non-bank financial deposits, which can be observed through changes in the structure of total deposits in the country [1] - It is suggested to focus on absolute growth amounts rather than growth rates to better reflect current changes, as growth rates can be influenced by base effects [2] - The structure of M2, a measure of money supply, is analyzed to understand the internal changes related to deposit migration [3][6] Group 2: M2 Structure Analysis - As of July 2025, the total M2 scale in China is 330 trillion yuan, with specific structural components needing to be examined to understand the migration issue [4] - Since 2018, there has been a notable decline in the proportion of corporate demand deposits, while personal deposits have increased, indicating a shift in individual saving behavior [8] - The increase in personal time deposits and other deposits suggests a trend towards "personalization of deposits" and "time depositization" among individuals [10] Group 3: Investment Behavior and Market Trends - The significant increase in personal time deposits in 2023, reaching a record increment of 16 trillion yuan, indicates a temporary shift in investment behavior, with a subsequent decline in growth in 2024 and 2025 [14] - The increment of non-bank financial deposits also rose from 2.29 trillion yuan in 2023 to 5.16 trillion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, suggesting a gradual shift towards financial investments [14] - The current investment behavior reflects a recovery in public confidence, although it has not yet translated into increased consumption or real investment in the economy [15]