FPG财盛国际：美联储加息 vs 降息：对黄金、股市等影响有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact global financial markets, influencing assets like gold, stocks, and cryptocurrencies [2]. Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Hikes - When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the market immediately feels the tightening effect [4]. - Gold, despite being a "safe-haven asset," loses attractiveness in a high-interest environment due to increased opportunity costs [5]. - Technology stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates, as rate hikes compress their high valuation logic [5]. - Bitcoin, viewed as a "liquidity darling," tends to weaken during rate hike cycles [5]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - Conversely, interest rate cuts are perceived as a signal of "releasing liquidity," leading to lower borrowing costs and increased market inflows [5]. - Gold benefits from lower real interest rates, typically resulting in price increases [5]. - Rising interest rates lead to increased borrowing costs, constraining corporate financing and consumer spending [5]. - A stronger dollar results in capital flowing back to the U.S., tightening global liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets like gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - A recovering stock market, especially growth stocks, may experience rapid rebounds during rate cuts [6]. - The cryptocurrency market becomes more active, with high-risk, high-volatility assets regaining popularity [6]. - Market participants often focus more on future interest rate paths rather than just the announced results, leading to preemptive market movements [8]. - The disparity between market expectations and actual outcomes can lead to significant volatility upon data releases [8].