美国会最新报告预测美今年经济数据将“全面变糟”

Economic Outlook - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that President Trump's tariff policies, immigration controls, and tax and spending legislation will increase unemployment and inflation rates while suppressing overall economic growth this year [1][3] - The CBO's updated economic forecast indicates a downward revision of the unemployment rate, inflation rate, and overall growth rate compared to earlier predictions made before Trump's inauguration [3][5] GDP Growth Projections - The CBO expects the real GDP growth rate to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.4% this year, a further reduction from the initial forecast of 1.9% [5] - The decline in GDP growth is attributed to new tariff policies and reduced immigration leading to a slowdown in consumer spending [5] - The report anticipates a rebound in GDP growth to 2.2% by 2026, stabilizing at 1.8% in 2027 and 2028 [5] Economic Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are reported to have increased the prices of consumer goods and services, thereby weakening household purchasing power and raising production costs for businesses reliant on imports [5] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist noted that the effects of the tariff policy will continue to manifest in the coming months, predicting weak growth in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [7] Government Response - A White House spokesperson expressed confidence that tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and energy expansion policies will yield positive results in Trump's second term, countering the pessimistic forecasts [7]