安联：料美联储本周减息25个基点 未来减息步调仍存变量

Group 1 - Allianz expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% during the upcoming meeting [1] - The short-term interest rate market has fully priced in the possibility of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, compared to only one expected earlier in the summer [1] - Weakness in the U.S. labor market supports the recent shift in rate cut expectations, while persistent inflation data could disrupt future rate expectations [1] Group 2 - The latest U.S. employment report and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicate stagnation in economic activity, reinforcing market expectations for a shift in the Fed's policy response to economic downturn risks [2] - Despite a core PCE inflation rate of 2.9%, significantly above the target, real GDP growth has halved compared to 2024, leading to further compression of consumer real income [2] - Allianz believes the rate cut in September is more likely to be 25 basis points rather than 50, with future cuts depending on the deterioration of the labor market [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration's increasing institutional pressure on the Federal Reserve may become a significant variable in future policy predictions, potentially leading to lower expectations for the terminal federal funds rate [3] - Allianz maintains a positive outlook on the steepening of the U.S. yield curve, despite having reduced some exposure to U.S. yield curve risks [3] - The company continues to favor the allocation of U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) amid rising inflation risks and concerns over the Fed's future independence [3]