帮主郑重盘前策略：9月15日A股走势分析及策略

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant movements, with various factors influencing the market's direction and potential investment strategies for September 15. Message Perspective - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation on imported simulation chips from the U.S., potentially benefiting domestic simulation chip companies [3] - The national plan aims for new energy storage installations to reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan, indicating a booming storage sector [3] - Eight departments are promoting the application of intelligent connected vehicles, accelerating the trial of L3-level models, which may present opportunities in the autonomous driving sector [3] - Fiscal support for consumer goods through trade-in programs has injected 420 billion yuan, boosting sales over 2.9 trillion yuan, signaling positive prospects for the retail industry [3] - AI is driving storage demand, with Micron halting quotes and planning price increases of 20%-30%, while automotive-related prices may rise by 70%, highlighting the storage chip sector's potential [3] - The successful second ignition test of the Long March 10 rocket may stimulate the commercial aerospace sector [3] Policy Perspective - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 12, injecting liquidity into the market, which is a clear positive signal [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a work plan for stabilizing growth in the power equipment industry for 2025-2026, along with a new pricing mechanism for renewable energy, providing policy support for the renewable energy sector [3] Technical Perspective - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a long upper shadow candlestick, indicating significant resistance around the 3900-point mark, with key support at 3867 points [4] - If the index breaks below 3867 points, it may test the 3856-3849 point range; conversely, if it can break through 3900 points with sufficient volume, it could challenge the 4000-point level [4] - Trading volume on September 15 is crucial; a sustained volume above 3 trillion yuan could indicate a bullish trend, while a drop below 2 trillion yuan may lead to a consolidation phase [4] Capital Flow Perspective - Recent capital flows show divergence, with northbound funds selling a net 1.414 billion yuan on September 14, marking a cumulative outflow of over 5 billion yuan in three days, indicating a shift from technology stocks to high-dividend assets like banks and utilities [4] - Main funds experienced a net outflow of 76.7 billion yuan, with semiconductor and new energy sectors facing sell-offs, while precious metals and real estate saw inflows, suggesting a cautious short-term market sentiment [4] Market Sentiment Perspective - Market sentiment is mixed; while new highs in indices have created a positive wealth effect, the resistance at 3900 points has led to hesitation among investors [5] - Rapid shifts in market hotspots have increased operational difficulty, contributing to investor anxiety [5] External Market Perspective - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, particularly in the semiconductor sector, providing some support for the A-share market [6] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 18, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, could benefit technology growth stocks; however, if the cut is less than expected, global funds may flow back to dollar assets, causing volatility in the A-share market [6] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to maintain a structural trend on September 15, with potential rotation in sectors like technology growth (AI computing, semiconductors), cyclical resources (rare earths, gold), and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - Investors are advised to maintain a position of 60%-70% and avoid full exposure to mitigate risks from potential market corrections, with a focus on accumulating promising stocks if the index holds above 3867 points [6]