黑龙江远赴天门“取经”，能拯救垫底的出生率吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in birth rates in Tianmen, Hubei, which has implemented extensive financial incentives to encourage childbirth, contrasting it with the declining birth rates in Heilongjiang province, which has been struggling with low fertility rates for years [1][6][9]. Group 1: Tianmen's Birth Rate Increase - Tianmen's birth rate increased by 17% in 2024, marking the first rise in eight years, with a total of 7,217 newborns, compared to 6,168 in 2023 [6][9]. - The local government has invested over 300 million yuan in three years to encourage childbirth, expecting to add more than 3,000 births [3][6]. - Tianmen's financial incentives for families include up to 287,000 yuan for second children and 355,000 yuan for third children, covering various subsidies and rewards [3][4]. Group 2: Heilongjiang's Declining Birth Rate - Heilongjiang has the lowest birth rate in China, with a decline from 6.22‰ in 2017 to 2.92‰ in 2023, and a natural population growth rate of -6.92‰ [7][9]. - The province has seen a population decrease of 8.04 million over 14 years, with a total population of 30.29 million in 2024 [9][10]. - Despite attempts to implement similar financial incentives, such as monthly subsidies for families, the results have been minimal, with only slight increases in birth rates [10][11]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Experts caution that the increase in Tianmen's birth rate may be a short-term effect influenced by cultural factors and post-pandemic trends, rather than a sustainable improvement in fertility [13][14]. - The replicability of Tianmen's model in other regions is questioned, as local conditions, cultural contexts, and financial capabilities vary significantly [13][14]. - Historical insights suggest that population trends are influenced more by social structures than by financial incentives alone, indicating that broader economic reforms may be necessary for lasting change [14].