Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-15 03:28Group 1 - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts have increased significantly, with probabilities exceeding 90% for September and over 70% for October and December [1] - The Federal Reserve began its rate cut cycle in September 2024, with three cuts planned for that year, but has not cut rates since 2025 due to various uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on Chinese assets can be analyzed through three main aspects: easing external constraints on China's monetary policy, potential depreciation of the dollar leading to a stronger yuan, and global capital reallocation [2] - A weaker dollar may affect export-oriented companies and those with dollar-denominated debts, but it could also reduce repayment pressures for companies with dollar loans [2] - The combination of dollar depreciation and a shift in global monetary order may drive a bullish trend in Chinese equity markets, benefiting from the fragmentation and diversification of the global monetary system [2]