红枣2601合约：本周涨1.41%，新季预估减产5-25%

Core Viewpoint - The red date futures market has seen a slight increase, with expectations of a decrease in new season production, leading to potential price fluctuations in the near term [1] Futures Market Summary - The red date 2601 contract rose slightly, closing at 11,155 yuan/ton on September 12, an increase of 155 yuan/ton or 1.41% from the previous period [1] - The new season production is estimated to decline by 5-10% compared to 2022 and by 20-25% compared to 2024, with projections between 560,000 to 620,000 tons [1] Spot Market Summary - The purchase price for Xinjiang gray dates for the 2024 production season ranges from 4.50 to 5.50 yuan/kg, with an average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg [1] - The spot price for Hebei first-grade gray dates remains stable at 9,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of CJ01 - 1655, down 155 from the previous period [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market has seen low arrival volumes this week, with general purchasing enthusiasm and transaction activity being subdued, indicating unresolved supply-demand conflicts [1] - Physical inventory at 36 sample points in the Hebei Cui'er Zhuang market is 9,321 tons, down 89 tons or 0.95% from last week [1] Quality and Inventory Concerns - The 2024 production season is characterized by high production and inventory levels, but with poor quality, leading to slow inventory depletion [1] - There are concerns regarding the quality of the new season dates due to transitional over-exploitation issues, with no significant changes observed during the sugar accumulation period [1] Price Outlook - The spot prices in the sales area have been adjusted downward, with weak purchasing and sales activity [1] - If subsequent production assessments fall short of expectations, red date prices may continue to rise, particularly with the upcoming holiday stocking demand, making short-term price increases more likely [1] Strategy and Risks - The strategy is neutral, with the potential for short-term price increases due to unverified production cuts [1] - High inventory levels of old dates necessitate attention to the production of new dates, as any production shortfall could lead to a return to weaker price conditions [1]