STARTRADER星迈：特朗普再一次表示本周将会出现大幅降息

Group 1 - Trump has publicly stated that he believes a significant interest rate cut is imminent, marking the third time he has mentioned the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts recently [2] - Market expectations indicate an over 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut announcement by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with almost no chance of maintaining current rates [2] - A Bloomberg survey of 52 economists shows a majority favoring a 25 basis point cut, while only 7 believe a larger 50 basis point cut is possible, indicating a preference for "preventive easing" rather than a full rate cut cycle [2] Group 2 - The initial policy adjustment on September 17 may not lead to a clear trend in rate cuts or hikes due to the unique economic environment [2] - Hawkish officials argue that inflation pressures have not eased, warning against premature rate cuts that could lead to uncontrolled prices [2] - Dovish officials express concern that the risks of economic downturn outweigh inflation risks, advocating for a 50 basis point cut to preemptively address recession risks [2] Group 3 - If the divide between hawkish and dovish officials continues to widen, there may be three dissenting votes at the upcoming meeting, potentially increasing to four if tensions escalate [3] - An increase in dissenting votes could undermine market confidence in the Federal Reserve's policy coherence and may lead to short-term volatility in the dollar and U.S. stock markets [3] - Federal Reserve policymakers face the challenge of balancing "recession prevention" with "inflation control" while also addressing the growing influence of the White House [3]