特朗普：“大幅降息”要来了！此前美就业数据恶化，分析称美联储9月降息至少25个基点的可能性为99%

Core Viewpoint - President Trump anticipates a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting, marking the first reduction since December of the previous year [3][6]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, which has intensified market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - Private sector employment increased by only 54,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and well below the revised figure of 106,000 for July, indicating a weakening labor market [7][8]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, while the dollar index and long-term U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply, reflecting growing concerns about slowing economic growth [7]. - The price of gold futures surged significantly as a result of the market's reaction to the employment data and the anticipated Fed rate cut [7]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by at least 25 basis points in September is currently estimated at 99% according to market prediction platforms [8]. - Analysts from Bank of America expect the Fed to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market, predicting rate cuts of 25 basis points in both September and December, with the possibility of larger cuts if labor market conditions worsen [8]. Political Commentary - Democratic lawmakers have criticized the rising unemployment rate, attributing it to the Trump administration's tariff policies and economic management, suggesting that these factors have directly impacted job opportunities and inflation levels [9].