2025年第三季经济与投资策略观点：利率下调 预期与稳健经济前景

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Global economic activity remains robust despite ongoing policy uncertainties, with a projected growth rate of 2.5% for this year and 2.6% for 2026, both above market consensus levels [1][4] - The peak of policy uncertainty has passed, yet market expectations for economic growth remain pessimistic, particularly regarding the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] - The resilient U.S. economy, characterized by strong growth and high inflation, contradicts market expectations for immediate rate cuts, which may be delayed until 2026 [1][5] Group 2: Regional Economic Insights - The U.S. labor market remains strong, supporting consumer spending, while inflation risks persist due to delayed impacts from tariff disputes [2][5] - The Eurozone is experiencing solid growth, bolstered by trade agreements and supportive monetary and fiscal policies, although this may signal the end of the European Central Bank's easing cycle [2][5] - The UK faces constraints on growth, with GDP expected to remain below 1%, and inflation potentially exceeding 4% in the coming months [2][5] Group 3: Emerging Markets and Currency Trends - China's manufacturing exports have benefited from delayed tariff increases, leading to steady economic growth, although recent data indicates a mild slowdown [3][4] - Emerging markets may see improved prospects if the U.S. dollar continues to depreciate, providing central banks with room to lower interest rates and stimulate domestic demand [3][6] - A depreciating dollar could create deflationary effects in other regions, facilitating monetary easing and boosting internal demand [6]