铁矿石：供需转换，节前补库或支撑价格震荡

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices remained strong last week, influenced by Guinea's government requiring mining developers to build deep processing and smelting plants, alongside a consensus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [1] Supply Factors - Supply expectations for iron ore remain unchanged, with a notable decline in foreign shipments due to reduced output from Vale and non-mainstream miners, while Australian shipments remain stable [1] - The arrival volume of iron ore is slightly lower than the same period last year, and as previous high shipment volumes arrive, supply-side pressure will gradually emerge, reducing support for prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic demand is recovering as environmental production limits in North China are lifted, with an average daily pig iron output of 240.55 thousand tons [1] - Although steel mill profitability has declined, it remains near a five-year high, with blast furnace profits nearing breakeven and short-term losses widespread [1] - Pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills may support iron ore prices [1] Inventory Trends - Steel mills' daily consumption has increased with production recovery, leading to a slight rise in inventory, although still below last year's levels [1] - Port inventories continue to rise, and with the lifting of environmental restrictions, port throughput is expected to increase, while domestic pre-holiday replenishment will likely reduce inventories [1] Market Outlook - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with trading focus shifting to real conditions [1] - As the domestic peak season approaches, attention will be on changes in the black series fundamentals [1] - In the short term, iron ore supply is expected to recover while demand may decline from previous highs, leading to a mid-term shift in supply-demand balance, but pre-holiday replenishment is likely to support prices, with expectations of high-level fluctuations [1]