沥青：供应增需求弱，多地价格涨跌10 - 100元/吨

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, but demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to limited price increases for the remainder of the year [1] Supply and Demand - Overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while demand has not effectively released due to adverse weather and financial constraints [1] - Inventory structure has improved with stable factory inventories and reduced social inventories, driven by essential and speculative demand [1] Price Dynamics - Asphalt prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest regions have decreased by 10 to 100 yuan per ton, while North China saw a price increase of 10 yuan per ton [1] - The price of asphalt is currently lower in South China due to restrictions from oil quotas and consumption taxes, despite the region being affected by typhoons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see only one more price increase opportunity this year, as the demand peak has not exceeded expectations [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC's continued production increases, leading to lower costs for asphalt [1] - The upcoming autumn construction conditions are anticipated to improve, but frequent rainfall may hinder demand [1] Trading and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt is relatively high compared to crude oil, with a weakening crack spread [1] - Short-term trading strategies may consider long positions after crude oil stabilizes, despite the current market showing signs of adjustment [1]