天然橡胶RU2601：上周跌3.09%，短期或震荡偏强

Core Viewpoint - Natural rubber futures prices experienced a significant decline last week, but the market outlook suggests potential for a strong rebound in the near term [1] Market Overview - The main contract RU2601 traded between 15,670 and 16,350 CNY/ton, closing at 15,820 CNY/ton, marking a decrease of 505 points or 3.09% for the week [1] - Macroeconomic factors include a substantial downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment numbers and an unexpected drop in August PPI inflation data, which has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Weather conditions in Southeast Asia are affecting rubber tapping progress, providing some support for raw material prices. Domestic production is slowing down, contributing to this support [1] - Demand: Tire manufacturers have seen a notable increase in operating rates, with full-steel tire inventories decreasing rapidly, while half-steel tire inventories are depleting more slowly due to cautious downstream stocking [1] - August saw a year-on-year increase of 13% in automobile production and 16.4% in sales, with cumulative production and sales exceeding 20 million units from January to August [1] Inventory Trends - Recent data indicates a decrease in inventories across various categories, including the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventories of natural rubber in China, and total inventories in Qingdao, with a significant increase in the rate of inventory reduction [1] Future Outlook - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is seen as beneficial for rubber prices, with supply providing support but facing future pressures. Demand remains strong, and inventory depletion is ongoing, leading to a forecast of short-term price fluctuations leaning towards strength [1] Trading Strategy - The strategy suggests that RU2601 may experience short-term fluctuations with a bias towards strength. Traders are advised to consider buying on dips and to look for arbitrage opportunities between contracts 2511 and 2601, while remaining cautious with options [1]