降息预期升温之际美元承压 铝价连涨七日创3月来新高

Group 1 - Aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive trading days, reaching a peak of $2,705 per ton, the highest level since March [1] - The market is anticipating a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which is putting pressure on the dollar and boosting metal prices, including aluminum [1] - Concerns over supply have intensified due to a surge in extraction inventory applications, contributing to the recent price support for aluminum [1] Group 2 - Bank of America forecasts a significant shift in the aluminum market, predicting a supply surplus of 31,600 tons in 2025, but a reversal to a supply deficit of 29,200 tons by 2026, with prices potentially rising to $3,000 per ton by Q4 2026 [1] - The anticipated aluminum supply shortage in 2026 largely depends on the recovery of demand in Europe and the U.S., with U.S. consumers not yet fully absorbing the 50% aluminum import tariff [2] - China's aluminum demand remains robust, supported by purchases from the power grid, solar panel, and automotive sectors, leading to record-high domestic consumption [2]