就业放缓遇上关税通胀，美联储或现2019年来首次“三向分裂”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is preparing to implement its first interest rate cut of the year amidst a divided stance among its members, balancing a weakening job market against inflation risks from President Trump's tariff policies [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - Investors widely expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy vote [1]. - There is a possibility of a "three-way split" vote, indicating a lack of consensus on the action to be taken, with some members advocating for a larger cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core disagreement among Fed officials revolves around the assessment of tariffs' impact on inflation, with some officials believing that inflation risks remain despite a 4.3% unemployment rate [3]. - Recent economic data, including a rise in initial jobless claims to the highest level since 2021 and the first monthly job loss since the pandemic, are being cited as reasons for more aggressive rate cuts [3][4]. Group 3: Political Pressures - The meeting is also influenced by unique political pressures, including ongoing attacks from President Trump on Fed Chair Powell and the potential implications of these pressures on the Fed's decision-making independence [5]. - Some analysts suggest that a hawkish dissenting vote could politically benefit Powell by balancing the pressure for aggressive cuts from Trump and his appointees [5]. Group 4: Future Guidance - The complex economic backdrop and tense political climate suggest that future policy guidance from the Fed will be uncertain, with the upcoming quarterly economic forecast expected to show a wide range of opinions among committee members [5][7]. - The economic projections are anticipated to be highly dispersed, reflecting the varied views within the committee [7].