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首席观点 | 创金合信基金魏凤春:风险溢价又起波澜
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-15 06:28

Core Viewpoint - The market is entering a phase of increased volatility and divergence, necessitating a focus on certain investment strategies that enhance certainty, such as anti-involution policies, global supply chain layouts, and domestic consumption [3][4]. Market Review - Last week's performance showed a weakening trend in gold prices, aligning with the assessment that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are nearing an end. The rise in global risk premiums has led to increased investor confidence in gold pricing, although opinions on its potential peak vary significantly [4][5]. - The performance of various asset classes indicates a clear preference for technology and innovation sectors over traditional sectors, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 showing stronger gains compared to the Northbound Stock Connect [4][5]. - The real estate sector's rebound reflects investor hopes for government intervention to support economic stability, although this is viewed as a temporary rather than a sustainable trend [5]. Macroeconomic Data - Recent economic data has confirmed the effects of anti-involution policies, with CPI indicating weak consumer demand and PPI showing a recovery as a direct result of these policies. The slowdown in exports is a natural correction following previous surges [8][10]. - The stability in social financing growth suggests no significant influx of funds into the stock market or a clear signal of credit expansion in the real economy. New RMB loans in August were lower than the previous year, indicating weak credit demand despite monetary easing measures [8][10]. External Shocks and Risk Premiums - External factors, including the ongoing US-China trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions, have heightened risk premiums, impacting asset allocation strategies. The recent focus on potential tariffs has re-entered investor considerations, complicating the market outlook [10][11]. - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates an increase in risk premiums, suggesting that external conflicts could have a more pronounced impact on market dynamics in the near term [11]. Strategic Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that low-volatility strategies may be effective, with a narrowing gap between equity and bond markets. However, the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts from the Chinese central bank remains low [13]. - The market is expected to continue consolidating amid rising risk premiums, with a focus on certainty-driven investments. The upcoming anti-dumping investigations into US-origin chips may reignite discussions around import substitution, reflecting the ongoing US-China negotiations [13].