美联储鹰鸽大战一触即发！鲍威尔或遭遇双重反对

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points amid pressure from President Trump and uncertainty regarding employment and inflation prospects [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making Dynamics - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may face a dilemma between board members advocating for larger rate cuts and regional Fed presidents favoring unchanged borrowing costs [2] - The possibility of dissenting votes within the FOMC indicates unique pressures faced by the committee, transcending purely macroeconomic debates [2] - The upcoming two-day meeting coincides with intensified attacks from President Trump on the Fed, including calls for Powell's resignation [2][3] Group 2: Economic Context and Rate Expectations - Since December, the Fed has maintained rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5% after a total cut of 100 basis points last year [4] - Powell's comments at Jackson Hole suggested that a decline in the job market might mitigate broader price pressures from tariffs, leading to market expectations of a dovish shift [4] - Some regional Fed presidents remain skeptical about inflation trends, believing that the impact of trade policies has not been fully reflected [4] Group 3: Political Influences and Future Projections - Analysts suggest Powell might negotiate a "grand bargain" with hawkish members to secure their support for a rate cut while signaling higher thresholds for future cuts [5] - The potential appointment of allies to the Fed could influence the decision-making process, with some members advocating for more aggressive cuts [5] - The FOMC's upcoming quarterly forecast will outline expectations for economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates, reflecting diverse views among its members [6]