Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Gujing Gongjiu's Q2 2025 operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items are 4.734 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.315 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 14.23%, 11.63%, and 11.81% [1] - The proportion of aged original liquor remains stable, while the price per ton across various series is declining [1] - In terms of market performance, H1 2025 revenues in North China, Central China, and South China are 0.809 billion, 12.297 billion, and 0.768 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.04%, +3.60%, and -5.84%, indicating that Central China experienced growth, likely due to a solid channel base in Anhui [1] Group 2 - As a leading brand in Huizhou liquor, the company has a solid base within the province, and the deceleration in Q2 2025 is seen as a pressure release for future peak season efforts [1] - Considering the overall industry environment, the company has adjusted its profit forecast downwards, expecting net profits attributable to the parent for 2025-2027 to be 5.620 billion, 6.002 billion, and 6.810 billion yuan respectively, revised from previous estimates of 6.299 billion, 7.207 billion, and 8.104 billion yuan [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company [1]
研报掘金丨天风证券:维持古井贡酒“买入”评级,Q2降速释压,为后续旺季发力蓄势