长城宏观：资金合力仍待新一轮产业催化

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations in the first half of the week, followed by a rebound attempt, but faced a pullback on Friday. The average daily trading volume was approximately 23.264 billion yuan. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with a balanced performance between large and small caps. The electronics, real estate, and agriculture sectors saw the highest gains, while banking, oil and petrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals faced declines [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestic macro data released last week indicated resilient domestic demand. However, August exports showed signs of weakening compared to July, primarily due to declining U.S. import demand. The "export rush" effect is expected to weaken, posing risks to exports in the coming months. Inflation showed positive changes, with the core CPI rising for four consecutive months, while PPI's decline narrowed. Nonetheless, CPI has remained below 1% for 30 months, and PPI has been negative for 35 months, indicating ongoing pressure on domestic demand. The social financing growth rate fell to around 8.8% in August, suggesting limited upward potential for financing in the future [2] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI met expectations, but PPI significantly underperformed. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged, reinforcing rate cut expectations. The upcoming September FOMC meeting has already priced in rate cuts, with expectations of 2 to 3 cuts by the end of the year. Unlike last year, the market may price in more medium-term rate cuts following the September meeting [3] Investment Strategy - The market is currently in a medium-term oscillation phase, aligning with previous expectations for this month's market behavior. The AI-related sectors continue to attract investment, but there is a need for consolidation due to significant gains. Some funds are shifting towards sectors benefiting from anticipated rate cuts, such as non-ferrous metals and new energy. The trading volume remains strong, and while external shocks may occur, the market's bullish sentiment could keep indices in an upward trend. A narrow range of oscillation is expected until late October, with potential for further upward movement post the 20th National Congress [4][5] Sector Focus - Key sectors to focus on include PCB and optical modules in overseas computing power, GPU and ASIC in domestic computing power, and innovative drugs and medical devices in the pharmaceutical sector. There is a notable adjustment and rotation among leading sectors, suggesting opportunities for positioning at the bottom of significant oscillations [6]