全球“央行超级周”再现

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see major decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England regarding interest rates, with expectations of rate cuts primarily driven by labor market weaknesses and inflation concerns [2][3]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its meeting on September 16-17, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% [3][4]. - Recent data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.4% in August, indicating persistent inflation, while weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years [3][4]. - Market expectations suggest a 76% probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first cut anticipated in September [3][4]. - Analysts indicate that the Fed's focus is shifting from inflation to employment and economic weakness, with political pressures also influencing its decisions [4][5]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, despite recent trade agreements with the U.S. [6][7]. - Political uncertainty has increased following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, which may affect the Bank of Japan's future monetary policy decisions [6][7]. - Market expectations for a rate hike in October have decreased, with a high probability (98%) that the rate will remain unchanged [7]. Bank of England - The Bank of England's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was contentious, with a 5-4 vote reflecting concerns over medium-term inflation pressures [6][8]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including unemployment rates and CPI, will provide further insights into the UK's economic health and influence future monetary policy [8]. - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor has indicated that while current rates may not be at neutral levels, further easing could risk reversing policy direction later [8]. Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada is expected to restart rate cuts on September 17, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the rate down to 2.5% [9]. - Recent economic indicators, including a rise in unemployment and a contraction in GDP, suggest significant downward pressure on the Canadian economy [9]. - Analysts believe that the Bank of Canada will adopt a cautious approach, potentially implementing further cuts in October due to ongoing trade uncertainties with the U.S. [9].