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申万宏源:猪价跌速加快 调控力度或将加码
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-15 08:05

Group 1: Swine Industry - The average selling price of external three-yuan pigs in China on September 14 was 13.27 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.5% [1] - The average selling price of weaned piglets was 294 yuan/head, down 29 yuan/head week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1] - The average selling price of two-yuan sows was 1595 yuan/head, down 1 yuan/head week-on-week, also a new low for the year [1] - The weak prices of piglets and sows reflect the industry's pessimistic expectations for pig prices in 2026 [1] - The expectation of upgraded capacity regulation in the industry is gaining traction, emphasizing the importance of the "anti-involution" process [2] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of stable and high-quality development, with improved profitability for leading pig companies [2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.26 yuan/chick, down 1.21% week-on-week [3] - The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.45 yuan/kg, down 1.15% week-on-week [3] - The average selling price of chicken meat cuts was 8687.95 yuan/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week [3] - The seasonal rebound in July-August has ended, with continued ample supply of white chickens expected to be a theme for 2025 [3] - The average selling price of Qingjiao Ma chicken was 5.75 yuan, down 0.3% week-on-week, maintaining a high level for the year [3] - The industry turned profitable in August, with further profit increases expected in September, suggesting a focus on companies' third-quarter performance [3] Group 3: Pet Food Industry - The total sales of pet food on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin in August reached 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 19% [4] - Cumulative sales from January to August 2025 reached 19.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [4] - Leading domestic brands showed significant growth, with Blue's, Honest Bite, and Fresh Lang increasing by 42%, 33%, and 27% year-on-year, respectively [4] - Overseas leading brands also saw growth, with Pro Plan, Royal Canin, and Orijen increasing by 45%, 28%, and 17% year-on-year, respectively [4]