前瞻：“超级央行周”美联储重启降息

Core Insights - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of key financial market events for the upcoming week, focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and its stance, as well as the rate decisions from the Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Economic Data Releases - On Monday, the focus is on the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index for September, with expectations of a potential third consecutive month of recovery, although recent key U.S. data has shown weakness, raising concerns about a slowdown [3] - On Tuesday, the U.K. will release employment data, which may influence market perceptions regarding the Bank of England's potential for rate cuts this year, especially with the unemployment rate rising to 4.7%, a four-year high [4] - The U.S. will also report August retail sales on Tuesday, with attention on whether growth remains moderate or further slows, reflecting the impact of tariff policies on consumer spending and economic confidence [6] Group 2: Central Bank Decisions - On Wednesday, the U.K. will publish August CPI data, which previously showed a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, the highest in 18 months; further increases could diminish expectations for rate cuts by year-end [7] - The Eurozone is expected to release its final August CPI, anticipated to remain at 2%, aligning with the ECB's target and supporting the outlook for a pause in rate cuts [7] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on the same day, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut due to recent job losses and a decline in Q2 GDP [7] Group 3: Key Central Bank Meetings - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve is expected to restart rate cuts by 25 basis points, with the market fully pricing in this move; attention will be on the Fed's communication regarding its dovish stance and potential for further cuts by year-end [10] - The Bank of England is also expected to maintain its current rate but will be closely watched for policymakers' evaluations of recent data and the outlook for potential cuts in November [10] - On Friday, the Bank of Japan is anticipated to keep rates unchanged, with recent optimistic economic data supporting a potential rate hike, although political uncertainties from the Prime Minister's resignation may influence decisions [12]