中金：钾肥维持高景气 关注新增产能释放进度

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a sustained upward trend in potash prices due to limited new capacity and low domestic inventory, suggesting a prolonged high demand environment for potash fertilizers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The FOB prices for potash in Vancouver and the Baltic Sea are reported at $288 and $290 per ton, reflecting increases of 24% and 35% respectively since the beginning of the year [2]. - Domestic ex-factory prices for potash in Qinghai are at 2,800 yuan per ton, marking a 10% increase since the start of the year [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global potash demand is expected to rise, with Nutrien raising its annual demand forecast to 73-75 million tons, driven by strong demand recovery in India and China, as well as favorable economic conditions for major crops in Southeast Asia [3]. - Supply remains tight with limited new capacity expected in 2025, and the BHP potash project has been delayed until mid-2027 [3]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - Port inventories have decreased to 1.63 million tons, the lowest level since 2021, indicating a continued strong demand for potash fertilizers [4]. - The seasonal demand for potash is expected to persist until October, supporting the outlook for sustained price strength [4].