金价太疯狂，印度黄金需求旺季恐遇冷！

Core Insights - India's gold demand during the festival season is expected to be weaker than last year due to record-high gold prices, which may suppress jewelry purchases and offset moderate growth in investment demand [1] - The decline in gold demand in India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, could limit the recent surge in global gold prices [1] - Despite high gold prices, investment demand, particularly for gold ETFs, has been rising, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards long-term investment in gold [2] Group 1: Gold Demand Trends - Gold prices in India reached a historic peak of 109,840 rupees per 10 grams, up 42% year-to-date, with a 21% increase projected for 2024 [1] - Consumer budgets are fixed, making it difficult to keep up with rising gold prices, leading to an expected decline in physical demand by approximately 10%-15% [1] - The fourth quarter typically accounts for one-third of India's gold sales, driven by wedding season and festivals, with 2024 demand reaching 265.8 tons due to price corrections [1] Group 2: Investment Demand and Consumer Behavior - Investment demand, especially for gold ETFs, has been increasing, with the ETF size in India approaching 160 billion rupees in Q1 2025, reflecting a strong long-term allocation willingness [2] - Structural changes in consumer behavior are evident, with a significant decline in non-essential jewelry purchases, while wedding-related demand is maintained through lightweight designs and trade-in options [2] - The share of trade-in jewelry consumption reached 60% in Q1 2025, with retailers offering installment payment plans to ease budget constraints [2] Group 3: Retail Market Challenges - Recent tax relief measures may partially boost retail demand, but the benefits of tax cuts have already been largely realized in 2024, leading to a 27% year-on-year decline in gold imports from January to May 2025 [3] - Retail jewelry consumption fell by 25% year-on-year to 71 tons in Q1 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020, with southern markets experiencing a similar decline [3] - Jewelers are adjusting product structures, increasing the market share of 18K gold jewelry from 5%-7% to over 15%, appealing to younger consumers seeking fashion and value [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council predicts that if gold prices exceed $3,000 per ounce, India's total gold demand may drop to 700 tons in 2025, the lowest in four years [4] - Some institutions remain optimistic, suggesting that as consumers adapt to high gold prices and with favorable monsoon conditions, demand may rebound by 5%-10% in the fourth quarter [4] - The decline in India's gold import demand may limit global gold price increases, but central bank purchases could provide long-term support for prices [5]