恐错失数十亿美元中国大单，“中国擅长持久战，不像美国”

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have severely impacted U.S. soybean farmers, particularly in North Dakota, who are missing out on billions of dollars in potential sales to China due to a lack of purchase commitments from Chinese buyers [1][2][17]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - North Dakota soybean farmers heavily rely on exports to China, with nearly a quarter of the 4 billion bushels produced annually being exported there [2]. - Last year, China imported approximately $13 billion worth of soybeans from the U.S., a significant increase from $2 billion two decades ago [2]. - Currently, the export commitment for the upcoming soybean harvest is at its lowest level since the 2018-19 season, leading to stagnant soybean prices [2][3]. Group 2: Market Competition - Brazilian soybeans have become increasingly attractive to Chinese buyers, with Brazil supplying 70% of China's soybean imports last year, double the amount from 15 years ago [6][17]. - U.S. soybean prices are currently $0.80 to $0.90 per bushel lower than Brazilian soybeans, but U.S. trade barriers have increased procurement costs for Chinese importers by $2 per bushel [20][21]. - If the current trend continues, U.S. soybean sales to China could drop by 14 to 16 million tons by mid-November [20]. Group 3: Economic Support and Subsidies - The U.S. government has previously provided $23 billion in relief to farmers affected by trade disputes during Trump's first term [15]. - There are discussions about providing similar economic support, but the implementation of such plans is complicated and may take time to benefit farmers [15][16]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" proposes $66 billion over the next decade to support farmers, but many benefits will not be realized until the next harvest season [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to lower its soybean export forecast for the 2025/26 season due to ongoing trade disputes, with the current estimate at 46.4 million tons, down from 51.02 million tons the previous year [20]. - Despite the challenges, there remains a significant demand for U.S. soybeans from non-Chinese buyers, particularly during the sales season when competition is limited [21]. - The potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China could significantly improve the outlook for U.S. soybeans [22].