Gold Market - Recent gold prices have shown signs of adjustment after reaching historical highs, but the overall upward momentum remains intact, with potential for new highs in the short term [1] - The U.S. inflation issue has resurfaced, with August CPI rising from 2.7% to 2.9% year-on-year, and core CPI increasing to 3.1%, both within market expectations [1] - The labor market slowdown and economic deceleration are acknowledged, with expectations of continued inflation, which may support gold prices due to a weaker dollar and high inflation [1] - Technical analysis indicates a potential for new highs in gold prices, with support around $3630 [1] Oil Market - International oil prices experienced a rebound but remain in a downtrend, with weak fundamentals persisting [2] - Tensions from Israel's attack on Qatar briefly raised market anxiety, leading to a price rebound, but the situation remains manageable [2] - Seasonal demand for oil is expected to decline as the summer travel peak ends, exacerbating the oversupply issue [2] - OPEC and non-OPEC countries have decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, which may lead to a faster-than-expected growth in global oil supply by 2025 [2] - Technical indicators show a clear downtrend in oil prices, with resistance at $63.50 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index is showing weakness, with potential for new lows as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates [3] - A rate cut this week would mark the first since December of the previous year, following three cuts totaling 100 basis points [3] - The ongoing economic slowdown and labor market conditions may compel the Fed to maintain a prolonged rate-cutting stance [4] - Technical analysis suggests a continued downtrend for the dollar index, with resistance at 97.60 [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index closed with a bullish candle, but there are signs of excessive divergence that may require correction [5] - The short-term outlook indicates that the adjustment phase is likely not over, with support around 44480 [5] Copper Market - Copper prices have reached a resistance area, with a potential for a short-term downward adjustment [6] - Technical analysis suggests a possible ABC wave correction, with support at $4.53 [6] Economic Data Overview - The U.S. August CPI increased to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [7] - The seasonally adjusted CPI for August rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% [8] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 surged to 263,000, higher than the expected 235,000 [9]
百利好晚盘分析：牛市上不言顶 黄金还有新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-15 09:35