AI信仰正在推动经济增长

Group 1: Productivity Lag Effect - AI is a new general-purpose technology (GPT) that requires time to significantly impact productivity, similar to historical technologies like the steam engine and computers [1][3] - The productivity growth in the EU decreased by 0.6% in 2023 and is expected to grow by only 0.4% in 2024, which is below the average of 1% from 1995 to 2019 [3][5] - The average productivity growth in the US since 2020 is 1.8%, which is lower than the long-term average of 2.2% [3][5] - Future productivity growth from AI is projected to be only 0.4%-0.9% over the next decade, with total factor productivity improvement not exceeding 0.66% [3][5] Group 2: AI Investment Driving GDP Growth - Despite many AI model companies not being profitable, they are increasing investments, with the average capital expenditure of the four major US internet companies reaching 27.4% of their revenue in Q2 2024 [7][9] - Capital expenditures of these companies are expected to reach $245 billion in 2024 and $354 billion in 2025, significantly increasing their share of GDP [9][11] - AI data center spending is contributing more to GDP growth than consumer spending for the first time, indicating a shift in investment priorities [11][15] Group 3: AI Belief Illuminating the Future - The historical context of high expectations for technologies, such as nuclear energy, parallels current sentiments towards AI and nuclear fusion [15][16] - Investment in nuclear fusion has reached $9.766 billion, with significant backing from major tech companies and government initiatives [21][22] - The contrasting attitudes towards nuclear fusion highlight the ongoing debate about the feasibility and timeline of emerging technologies like AI and fusion energy [22][23]