全球流动性宽松在即，借道恒生科技ETF把握港股修复机遇

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. CPI data aligns with market expectations, reinforcing the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to benefit emerging markets like Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the U.S. dollar weakened, and U.S. Treasury yields declined significantly, with a 90% expectation for a 75 basis point rate cut by the end of the year and calls for a 50 basis point cut in September [1] - The liquidity easing trend is approaching, indicating a potential influx of capital into markets, particularly benefiting Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics - Despite a bullish sentiment in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks are still hovering around the 25,000-point mark, leading to skepticism among investors regarding future market performance [4] - Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Tech Index has been a leading indicator, with a strong start in Q1 driven by AI narratives, while A-shares only began to catch up in Q3 due to liquidity support [4] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Current constraints on Hong Kong stocks include lower EPS growth expectations for 2025 at -2.7% compared to 6.9% for the CSI 300, high Hibor rates limiting foreign capital inflow, and a narrowing valuation advantage with the AH premium dropping to 122% [7] - A potential shift could occur with the onset of interest rate cuts, leading to a rapid decline in Hong Kong dollar interest rates and increased foreign capital inflow [7] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The technology sector in Hong Kong shows positive signals despite a downward adjustment in 2025 earnings expectations due to increased e-commerce investments, with large-cap company valuations rising by 41% [8] - The current P/E ratio for the tech sector is approximately 16 times, lower than the U.S. market's 24 times, with a projected compound growth rate of 11% from 2024 to 2026 [8] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a "barbell strategy," balancing aggressive assets in A-shares with defensive positions in Hong Kong stocks benefiting from interest rate cuts and earnings recovery [8] - The E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF is highlighted as a product positioned for performance recovery and liquidity improvement, covering key sectors such as internet platforms, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8]