Core Viewpoint - Societe Generale analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's moderately restrictive stance has been maintained for too long, leading to a situation of "over-tightening" [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Stance - The risk balance in the Federal Reserve's dual mandate (employment and inflation) has shifted towards employment, indicating a need for a significant policy adjustment, specifically a 50 basis point rate cut [1] - Standard Chartered is the only other institution predicting a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Current market consensus anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, contrasting with the views of Societe Generale and Standard Chartered [1] - Traders currently estimate the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at only about 4% [1]