【UNFX 课堂】当市场陷入 PPI 狂欢理性投资者该如何保持清醒

Group 1 - The unexpected drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, which rose by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3%, has been interpreted as a clear signal of cooling inflation [2] - The immediate market reaction included a surge in the S&P 500 index to a historical high, a rise in gold prices exceeding 1.5%, and an increase in the probability of a rate cut in September to over 90% [3] Group 2 - There are three cognitive traps investors may overlook: the transmission from PPI to Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not straightforward, with current core CPI still at 3.8%, far above the 2% target [3][4] - The market has overestimated the rate cut expectations, pricing in 3-4 cuts this year, which exceeds the Federal Reserve's implied 1-2 cuts [3] - The divergence between valuations and earnings is increasing, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 21 times, while expected earnings growth for Q2 has dropped to 3.2% [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a layered strategy: short-term traders should follow the trend but maintain strict stop-loss orders, while long-term investors should focus on high-certainty value stocks and gradually reduce exposure to overvalued assets [4] - Key upcoming data to watch includes the CPI, which will be crucial in validating the PPI signals [4] - All investors should prepare for two scenarios: if inflation continues to cool, gradually increase holdings in interest-sensitive assets; if inflation shows persistent stickiness, allocate more to defensive assets [4]