Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-15 10:34Core Viewpoint - After significant stock price increases in recent months, most positive fundamentals are believed to be reflected, suggesting a profit-taking strategy in a generally bullish market [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Ratings Adjustments - Eoptolink's rating has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to a 338% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, with expectations of a significant slowdown in growth in the coming quarters [3][7]. - Innolight maintains a "Buy" rating as it is a pioneer in the new 1.6T product, expected to achieve significant growth in 2026, indicating more upside potential [6][19]. - TFC's rating has been downgraded to "Neutral" as its growth potential is already reflected in the current stock price, which exceeds +1 standard deviation [9][19]. - Accelink's rating remains "Neutral" due to weak fundamentals and high valuation compared to peers [8][19]. Group 2: Stock Performance Overview - All transceiver stocks have seen substantial increases, with Eoptolink up 460%, Innolight up 312%, TFC up 269%, and Accelink up 62% since April 1 [1][11]. - Despite a 12% year-on-year decline in revenue, ZTE's H-shares have risen 49% this year, reflecting optimism in AI infrastructure [3][15]. - YOFC's H-shares have surged 319% despite a 22% decline in revenue, driven by high-end fiber products with significant applications in AI infrastructure [3][15]. Group 3: Future Growth Catalysts - The anticipated rapid growth in 1.6T transceiver shipments is expected to be a catalyst for revenue and earnings in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [13][19]. - The demand for 800G is expected to remain strong, potentially offsetting pricing and volume pressures from lower-end transceivers [13][19]. - Companies have completed the new product validation phase for 1.6T products, indicating readiness for commercial production starting in 2025-2026 [13][19]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Earnings forecasts for Innolight, Eoptolink, Accelink, and TFC have been raised due to their strong performance in Q2 2025, while ZTE's forecast has been downgraded due to unmet earnings expectations [23][24]. - The positive growth momentum for 800G demand is expected to continue, with 1.6T shipments accelerating in the coming quarters, making 2025 a year with strong growth potential [23][24].