降息临近，华尔街几乎放弃了对贸易战的担忧！

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's concerns over the global trade war are diminishing, overshadowed by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a strong focus on corporate earnings and artificial intelligence trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - The S&P 500 index has surged 32% since President Trump's announcement of global tariffs in April, with most analysts predicting further gains by year-end [1]. - Analysts are rapidly raising earnings expectations, reflecting confidence in U.S. corporate growth, which supports the bullish trend in the S&P 500 [2]. - The S&P 500's earnings expectations for 2026 have risen for nine consecutive weeks since July, aligning with levels seen in late April [2]. Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - Corporate profits grew by 11% in the second quarter, exceeding prior expectations, driven by resilient consumer behavior and ongoing AI spending [3]. - United Airlines reported improved travel demand, with its CEO expressing increased optimism about the global economy [3]. - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% from July, with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, aligning with expectations and supporting the Fed's interest rate cut trajectory [3]. Group 3: Trade Policy and Tariff Impact - The negative impact of tariffs on individual companies is limited, primarily reflected in ISM price data rather than consumer price indices [4]. - The Bloomberg Global Trade Uncertainty Index has dropped to its lowest level of the year, contributing to market resilience [4]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is currently 9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of nearly 18%, due to factors like transshipment and exemptions [4].