Stocks Near All-Time Highs, NVDA Faces Chinese Pressure

Market Overview - The stock market is currently bullish, with the NASDAQ reaching an all-time high and the S&P 500 also near its peak [1][2] - There has been a broadening out in market performance, even amidst pullbacks in major tech stocks [3][4] - Technical indicators show that key moving averages are being held to the upside, suggesting a positive trend [3][5] Federal Reserve Expectations - A 25 basis point rate cut is fully priced in for the upcoming week, with discussions around a potential 50 basis point cut [7][8] - The market anticipates a total of 75 basis points in cuts through the end of the year [8][9] - Economic data, particularly labor market indicators, will heavily influence future rate cut expectations [9][10] Small Caps and Regional Banks - Small caps are under observation for momentum, with regional banks contributing significantly to the earnings power of the Russell 2000 [9][10] - The performance of small caps is closely tied to the rate cut regime and overall economic conditions [10] Nvidia and Trade Relations - Nvidia is facing scrutiny from China regarding potential anti-monopoly violations related to its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies [20][21] - The penalty for such violations could range from 1% to 10% of annual sales, which could significantly impact Nvidia's financials [21] - Ongoing trade talks between the US and China are focused on issues like TikTok and agricultural exports, with the market showing limited reaction to these discussions [24][26]