8月经济数据现短期波动，政策加码预期升温

Economic Overview - In August, China's economy showed short-term fluctuations due to export pressures, but it still demonstrated strong resilience and vitality [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from July, marking the lowest since September 2024 [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, also a decline of 0.3 percentage points from July, representing the lowest growth rate this year [1] - Fixed asset investment from January to August grew by 0.5% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first seven months of the year [1] Industrial Performance - The high-tech manufacturing sector's added value increased by 9.5% year-on-year from January to August, with integrated circuit manufacturing and aerospace equipment manufacturing growing by 22.3% and 14.6%, respectively [2] - Industrial robots and civilian drones saw production increases of 29.9% and 53.7%, respectively, indicating steady progress in intelligent and green transformation [2] - In August, the export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises saw a nominal decline of 0.4% year-on-year, marking the first decrease since 2024 [2] Consumer Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [4] - The sales of household appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies continued to maintain double-digit growth in August [4] - The tourism and leisure sectors experienced significant growth, with retail sales in related services showing double-digit increases [5] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 326.111 billion yuan, growing by 0.5% year-on-year from January to August [6] - Manufacturing investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year, although it showed a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first seven months [7] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 12.9% over the first eight months [8] Policy and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is expected to continue its efforts, with potential new measures in the fourth quarter focusing on fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts [1][9] - The government is likely to accelerate infrastructure investment towards the end of the year to counteract declines in other investments and exports [7][8] - The overall economic conditions remain stable, supported by ongoing macro policies and the construction of a unified national market [8]