招商策略：流动性驱动港股新一轮上涨，聚焦三进攻+两底仓

Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a new round of increases driven by liquidity, with both internal and external liquidity remaining abundant [2][6] - Short-term liquidity constraints have eased due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and continuous inflow of southbound funds [2][3] - The earnings growth of Hong Kong-listed companies is at a historically low level, with a clear distinction between new and old economic structures [2][7] Market Liquidity and Valuation - The continuous inflow of southbound funds has surpassed 1 trillion HKD this year, accounting for about 30% of market transactions, providing significant support to the market [3][27] - The local liquidity in Hong Kong showed signs of improvement after a brief tightening period, with HIBOR rates stabilizing [3][20] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index is significantly lower than that of major global indices, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery [32][34] Fundamental and Policy Analysis - The earnings growth of Hong Kong-listed companies is low, with a reported 0.9% decline in revenue and a 5.4% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [7] - The government continues to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, emphasizing effective execution [11][12] - The focus of industrial policy is on "Artificial Intelligence +", with the government accelerating the cultivation of new productive forces [14][15] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy includes three offensive sectors (technology, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials) and two defensive positions (turnaround stocks and high-dividend stocks) [4][52] - Technology stocks are expected to rebound as market pessimism fades, with significant growth potential in high-end manufacturing [54][62] - Non-bank financials are highlighted for their strong beta characteristics, with brokerage firms experiencing record trading volumes [70] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is anticipated to benefit from improved earnings and capital expenditures, with AI and internet companies showing resilience [57][64] - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to maintain upward momentum due to a weak dollar and abundant liquidity [66][68] - High-dividend stocks are in demand as investors seek stable income amidst increasing southbound fund inflows [4][31]