投资者静候美联储利率决议

Group 1 - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures saw slight increases, while gold and oil prices experienced minor declines, and Bitcoin surpassed $16,000, indicating a mixed market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% since the last rate cut in December 2024, which totaled a 100 basis point reduction over three consecutive cuts [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut during the upcoming meeting, despite some internal disagreements within the Fed [1] Group 2 - Concerns about stagflation are rising as initial jobless claims have reached their highest level since 2021, indicating a weakening labor market, while inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Alicia Levine from Bank of New York suggests that the Fed will prioritize inflation concerns over the weakening labor market, reflecting a potential conflict in policy decisions [2] - David Bianco from DWS Americas highlights that the risks of rising inflation are balanced by the moderate weakness in the labor market, which may justify the Fed's decision to cut rates [2] Group 3 - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio was reported at 21.8, with an expected year-over-year earnings growth of 7.6% by Q3 2025, indicating positive earnings outlook despite high market valuations [3] - Federal funds futures traders anticipate two to three rate cuts by the end of 2025, with expectations of at least three to four additional cuts in 2026 [3]