【长江策略戴清团队】0915港股日评：南向流入，迎头赶上

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.22% to 26,446.56, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.91% to 6,043.61, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 0.21% to 9,384.76. The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index saw a slight decline of 0.16% [3] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.26%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.24%, and the Wind All A Index increased by 0.09%. The Dividend Index fell by 0.42% [3] Sector Performance - Among the primary sectors in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the top gainers were Comprehensive (+7.69%), Coal (+2.45%), and Electric Equipment & New Energy (+2.24%). The sectors that declined included Steel (-1.58%), Light Industry Manufacturing (-1.47%), and Non-ferrous Metals (-1.18%) [3] - In terms of concepts, the Unprofitable Biotechnology Index surged by 15.63%, the Lithium Battery Index rose by 5.62%, and the Anti-tumor Index increased by 5.08%. Conversely, the CGN Index fell by 4.35%, the Baby and Child Index dropped by 4.13%, and the Film and Television Media Index decreased by 3.38% [3] Capital Flow and Economic Factors - On September 15, 2025, the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 290.19 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 14.473 billion. The rise in the three major Hong Kong stock indices was attributed to a recent economic discussion between China and the U.S. in Madrid, which raised market expectations for positive outcomes [4] - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 94.2% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, which is expected to enhance global liquidity and benefit the Hong Kong market [4] Policy Developments - The China Automobile Industry Association released a proposal for payment norms for automotive suppliers, which aims to stabilize cash flow for small and medium-sized enterprises and maintain supply chain stability. This policy is expected to positively impact the automotive sector [4] - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported related simulation chips from the U.S., further strengthening the logic of domestic substitution and boosting the semiconductor sector [4] Future Outlook - The future growth of the Hong Kong market is expected to be driven by three core directions: 1) AI technology and new consumption, which are anticipated to have significant growth potential; 2) Continuous inflow of southbound funds, which will enhance pricing power; 3) The transmission from broad monetary policy to broad credit, alongside potential further rate cuts in the U.S. that could improve global liquidity [5] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate supply-side clearing, with related industries likely to rebound from their bottoms, gradually addressing the shortcomings of the bull market [5]