“咖啡通胀”席卷美国

Group 1: Coffee Price Surge - The retail coffee price in the U.S. surged nearly 21% year-over-year in August, marking the largest annual increase since October 1997 [1][6] - The price of ground coffee reached a historical high of $8.87 per pound in August, with the coffee CPI index rising 21% year-over-year [6][7] - Major coffee brands and small cafes are struggling to absorb rising costs, with J.M. Smucker planning its third price increase this winter [5][6] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The U.S. heavily relies on coffee imports, with 99% of its coffee consumption coming from overseas, primarily Brazil, Colombia, Switzerland, and Canada [5] - The U.S. imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian imports starting in August, leading to a 46% year-over-year decrease in coffee imports from Brazil [5][9] - Other countries like Switzerland and Canada also face significant tariffs, with rates of 39% and 35% respectively [5] Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The cost of tariffs is being passed on to consumers, contributing to a rise in inflation, with the consumer price index (CPI) increasing by approximately 2.9% in August [7][9] - Low-income households are disproportionately affected by rising prices, while consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with a 21% decline in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index year-over-year [7][8] - Experts predict that inflation may accelerate further in the next 6 to 12 months due to the full effects of tariff policies [8][9] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in its upcoming meeting, despite concerns about inflation risks from tariffs [9][10] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some arguing that inflation remains a concern [10] - The current economic situation is described as a "worst-case scenario" for the Federal Reserve, leading to a defensive approach to monetary policy [10]