全球央行超级周再来袭 美联储料领衔降息

Group 1 - The core inflation in the US remains sticky, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% in August compared to 0.2% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][2] - Weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, suggesting a weakening labor market [1][2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction expected, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% [1][2][3] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 76% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts this year due to the deteriorating labor market conditions [2][3] - Economic experts suggest that the Federal Reserve's focus is shifting from inflation to employment and economic weakness, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September [3][4] - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, complicating its policy decisions amid strong inflation and weak employment data [4] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5%, despite recent trade agreements with the US, which have alleviated some economic concerns [5][6] - The Canadian central bank is anticipated to restart rate cuts, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction to 2.5% due to rising unemployment and GDP contraction [8][9] - The UK central bank faces complexities in its monetary policy due to mixed economic signals, with recent inflation data complicating the outlook for further rate cuts [7][8]