2025年不买房，5年后会庆幸，还是后悔？现在有了答案

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a prolonged adjustment period, with a continuous decline in housing prices expected to persist into 2025, leading to a potential regret for those who choose to buy now rather than wait [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - National second-hand housing prices have been declining for over 30 months, with an average year-on-year drop of 7.34% in August alone, and an overall decline exceeding 30% [1][3]. - In certain areas like Zhuozhou and Yanjiao, housing prices have plummeted nearly 60%, indicating severe market distress [1][3]. - Various stimulus policies have been introduced, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in most cities, increased housing provident fund loan limits, and a reduction in first-home loan interest rates to a historic low of 3.2% [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are approximately 600 million residential buildings in China, sufficient to accommodate a population of 6 billion if each building houses 10 people, with millions of new properties expected to enter the market annually [4][6]. - A staggering 96% of households already own at least one property, with 41.5% owning two or more, indicating a saturation of demand for new housing [6][7]. - The aging population is expected to further diminish the demand for new housing, as many elderly individuals already own homes and younger generations face challenges such as inheritance and declining birth rates [7][10]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - The real estate market is entering a long-term deep adjustment phase after over 20 years of rapid growth, with persistent price bubbles remaining in major cities [9][12]. - In cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, the price-to-income ratio is as high as 40 times, meaning residents would need to save for 40 years without spending to afford a home [9][12]. - Future housing prices are expected to align more closely with residents' income levels, suggesting that those who wait to purchase may benefit from more favorable pricing in the future [12].