“水果自由”为何越来越近

Core Insights - The decline in fruit prices, such as blueberries and Sunshine Rose grapes, is primarily driven by supply-demand dynamics, with increased domestic production and rising import volumes contributing to this trend [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The significant increase in the supply of fruits, particularly imported varieties like cherries and blueberries, has led to a downward adjustment in prices [1] - Domestic production of fruits, including Sunshine Rose grapes, has surged, with the planting area reaching nearly 2 million acres and production exceeding 3 million tons, resulting in a price drop from 150 yuan/kg to around 10 yuan/kg [2] - Over the past decade, China's fruit planting area and production have consistently grown, reaching 327 million tons in 2023, with per capita availability surpassing 232 kg, well above the global average [1][2] Import Trends - China's fruit imports have increased significantly, with a 77.1% rise in total imports expected by 2024 compared to 2015, driven by favorable policies and improved logistics [2] - The expansion of import varieties and low tariffs, along with enhanced cold chain logistics, has facilitated easier access to high-quality fruits from around the world [2] Competitive Landscape - The competitiveness of high-quality domestic fruits, such as blueberries, has improved, with China's blueberry planting area and production reaching 95,900 hectares and 780,000 tons respectively by 2024, marking increases of 44.4% and 124.7% since 2020 [3] - The market for imported fruits is becoming more segmented, offering diverse product grades to cater to different consumer preferences, enhancing overall value [3] Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, the continuous growth in global fruit production and trade facilitation, along with the upgrading of domestic fruit industries, is expected to provide consumers with a wider variety of fruits at more reasonable prices [4] - The overall stability of fruit prices is supported by ample market supply and efficient distribution channels, moving consumers closer to achieving "fruit freedom" [4]