JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 智通财经网·2025-09-15 23:21Core Viewpoint - The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be perceived as a concession to political pressure, which could increase risks for the stock market, bond market, and the US dollar [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Investors have been anticipating a rate cut after a 9-month pause, with expectations solidifying for a 25 basis point cut this month due to signs of a weakening labor market [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has decreased from nearly 5% to around 4% as market conditions shift [1] - The stock market has seen a significant increase, with a market capitalization growth of $14 trillion and major indices reaching historical highs this month [1][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Returns - The "60/40 investment strategy" has yielded approximately 20% returns since the market rebound following Trump's tariff announcement [4] - US Treasury bonds have appreciated by 5.6% year-to-date, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has stabilized after hitting a low in July [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts and Federal Reserve Insights - Analysts, including Kelly, express skepticism about the Federal Reserve's ability to justify a rate cut given the projected inflation rate exceeding the 2% target until 2027 [5] - Kelly anticipates that inflation may be 1.2 percentage points above the Fed's target by Q4, while the unemployment rate remains only 0.3 percentage points above the target [5] - There is concern that if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ignores external pressures, the decision to cut rates could provoke significant opposition [5]